China's Non-Manufacturing Industry Rebounded ... - Business Insider

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- China?s non-manufacturing industries rebounded from the slowest expansion in at least 19 months, adding to signs the world?s second-biggest economy is recovering after a seven-quarter slowdown.

The purchasing managers? index rose to 55.5 in October from 53.7 the previous month, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in Beijing yesterday. September?s reading was the weakest since a new seasonally adjusted series of the gauge began in March 2011.

The report may bolster expectations for a recovery in economic growth this quarter after a similar measure for manufacturing expanded for the first time in three months. The data may also reduce pressure on policy makers to roll out more stimulus as they start a once-a-decade power transfer at a Congress in Beijing on Nov. 8.

?The impact of action to boost domestic demand has become more apparent and has bolstered market confidence,? Cai Jin, a vice chairman at the federation, said in yesterday?s statement. The expansion in non-manufacturing industries in October ?will help consolidate the foundation for steady growth,? he said.

China?s economic growth cooled to a three-year low of 7.4 percent in the third quarter as Premier Wen Jiabao?s campaign to curb consumer and property prices damped domestic demand and a sluggish global recovery capped the nation?s exports.

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Investment Spending

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Bank of America Corp. on Oct. 30 raised its estimate for fourth-quarter economic growth to 7.8 percent from 7.5 percent while Nomura Holdings Inc. projects a rebound to 8.4 percent after the government cut interest rates, accelerated investment spending and project approvals and cut taxes.

The Shanghai Composite Index, the nation?s benchmark stock gauge, had its strongest weekly rally in more than a month on speculation that economic growth is rebounding, rising 2.5 percent in the five days ending Nov. 2.

?The preemptive fine-tuning of macro-economic policies and structural reform measures are gradually taking effect and the economy is expected to keep steady and relatively rapid growth,? the People?s Bank of China said in its quarterly monetary policy report released on Nov. 2.

While priority will be given to ensuring stable growth, the government will stick to a prudent monetary policy and strengthen policy fine-tuning, it said.

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Market Confidence

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China Cosco Holdings Co., the nation?s biggest listed shipping company, reported a smaller loss in the third quarter compared with the same period a year earlier and its rival China Shipping Container Lines Co., returned to profit as container rates increased.

The non-manufacturing PMI is based on responses from purchasing managers at 1,200 companies in 27 industries including banking, retailing, construction and transport. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

A gauge of construction services rose at a faster pace and a real-estate services index returned to expansion after contracting the previous month, according to yesterday?s statement. In contrast, a gauge of new export orders showed a deeper contraction and a new orders index expanded at a slower pace.

Input prices climbed to 58.1, the highest reading since March, indicating growing pressure on costs, according to the statement. At the same time, a gauge of prices charged fell.

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Quantitative Easing

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The federation?s survey of manufacturing purchasing managers released Nov. 1 showed an index of input prices jumped to 54.3 in October from 51 the previous month, the highest reading since April and the second straight acceleration.

In its report, the central bank said that while domestic inflation is ?currently stable,? prices are sensitive to expansion in demand and to stimulus policies. Imported inflation also needs to be watched, it said.

In addition, the PBOC highlighted risks from quantitative easing policies in the U.S. and European Union which could result in more cross-border capital flows and higher commodity prices.

?Inflation doesn?t constrain the PBOC?s policy easing in the fourth quarter,? Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Nomura in Hong Kong, said in a note after the central bank report was published. ?However, if it rises in 2013, as we believe is likely, the PBOC may need to swiftly shift its policy toward neutral or tightening.?

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Economic Momentum

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The federation?s manufacturing PMI expanded for the first time in three months in October and a separate private survey released by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics was at an eight-month high, adding to evidence economic momentum in China is picking up.

Industrial-production growth accelerated for the first time in four months in September, retail sales expanded at the fastest pace since April and fixed-asset investment growth quickened.

Even so, in its quarterly report, the PBOC warned the economy still faces a ?complicated? environment at home and abroad.

China needs to consolidate the growth momentum in the domestic economy and faces the ?more pressing? tasks of economic restructuring and changing the pattern of its development, the PBOC said.

External demand remains weak due to the impact of the financial crisis and Europe?s debt woes may hurt the global economic recovery, it said. The U.S. is also facing problems related to its impending so-called fiscal cliff, the PBOC said, referring to the more than $600 billion of tax increases and budget cuts scheduled to take effect next year unless Congress acts.

--Zheng Lifei, Michael Wei. With assistance from Kelvin Wong in Hong Kong. Editors: Nerys Avery, Jim McDonald

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To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Zheng Lifei in Beijing at lzheng32@bloomberg.net

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To contact the editor responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst at ppanckhurst@bloomberg.net

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Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-non-manufacturing-industry-rebounded-sharply-last-month-2012-11

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